Can We Expect Another Recession Soon?
How do you predict the future? You can look at the past and see repeating patterns, but that’s not always an accurate method. For financial futures, most of the experts look at the behavior of the market and the state of a company’s (or country’s) financial solvency. Those on solid ground will succeed; those who have a shaky financial footing are likely to go under. If that formula holds true, the United States and many other Western nations are doomed to fail. Should we expect another recession some time soon? Many of the economic indicators we’re seeing are telling us yes.
If you’re a business owner and are enjoying a period of growth for the first time in a few years, enjoy it and make sure you track everything for use later on. The employees you’re recruiting and training? Make sure you have a good applicant tracking system in place because you may need to lay them off and rehire them again. Web based recruiting software can help you keep track of all the changes. The spending you’re doing right now? Don’t be afraid to do it if there’s a profit coming out of it, but cut out waste and frivolous expenses. This period of prosperity may not last long.
Why the predictions of doom and gloom? For one thing, the US has taken on massive debt that will take us generations to pay off. The picture that you see of growing economies and decreasing unemployment rates is in many cases a false indicator. The stimulus bill bailed a lot of folks out, but that money is all but dried out now. The problems we had before it was available are still there. Homeowners are still upside down on their mortgages, banks are still failing, and the jobs that have been added pay less than the ones we lost during the last recession.
Of course, there is still the uncertainty factor. Investments were made during the stimulus years that may help us stay out of financial distress for a while longer. Alternative energy has opened up new possibilities for job seekers and developers. A greater sense of national pride has led to the drive for more domestic improvement and less dependency on foreign fuel and products. Spending money here at home instead of abroad may save us from the really bad times, but we’re still likely to see another down period before we’re completely through this crisis.
Financial analysts, when the housing bubble first burst and banks began to look for federal bail-outs, predicted that this recession would be a “double-dip” recession, with the second phase being worse than the first. We haven’t seen it yet, but it still could happen. As a business owner, the small things like job applicant tracking have become more important. You need to know exactly what your company make-up is and be ready to make changes on the fly if need be. Do that and you’ll survive the hard times and prosper when things improve again.